Signals3 min read

What can giving totals hide?

By Baker Giving

The short answer

A giving total can hide whether first-time givers ever give again, whether recurring participation is growing or quietly weakening, and whether new gifts are simply replacing losses. A total measures the amount received in a period. On its own it does not show who stayed, who left, or why, so a total alone cannot establish whether givers are being retained. Answering that requires reading giver-level records with a clear source, time window, and method.

A total is a sum, not a story

The total is the number leadership sees most often, and it is a fair number. It is also a sum of many different behaviors. Large and small gifts, new and long-time givers, one-time and recurring gifts all collapse into one figure.

Two years can produce the same total from very different systems. One may have a stable base of recurring givers. The other may be losing that base and replacing it with one-time gifts that are harder to sustain.

First-time giver follow-through

A first gift is an act of trust. Whether that giver gives a second time can be shaped by many factors, some outside the church's view. Factors the church can influence may include a timely thank you, a clear way to give again, and an invitation into a recurring rhythm. A rise in first-time gifts says little until the church knows how many of those givers followed through.

Recurring participation

Recurring giving is often the steadiest part of the system, which makes its weakening easy to miss. A recurring gift can pause, fail, or end without any change large enough to show up in a monthly total. Reading the count of active recurring givers over time, and what happens after each failure, is more revealing than the recurring dollar amount alone.

Comparing fairly: time windows and completed cohorts

Retention questions are easy to answer badly. The two most common errors are comparing unequal time windows and judging a group of givers before they have had time to give again.

01Match the windowCompare the same span of time, with the same seasons, so that a holiday or a special offering does not masquerade as a trend.
02Define the cohortGroup givers by when they first gave, for example everyone whose first gift fell in a given quarter.
03Let the cohort completeOnly measure follow-through once each giver in the group has had the full follow-up window to give again. A cohort that is still in progress can understate follow-through, because some givers have not yet had the same opportunity or window to give again.
04Compare completed to completedSet one completed cohort beside another completed cohort. That is a fair comparison. A completed group beside an incomplete one is not.

Reading the total

Reading completed cohorts

Shows the amount received in a period.

Shows how many givers in a group gave again.

Does not separate new gifts from replaced losses.

Separates arrival from follow-through.

Does not, on its own, establish retention.

Can indicate retention, within the limits of the source, window, and method.

What each reading can and cannot support.

A hypothetical illustration

A total tells you how much arrived. On its own, it does not tell you who stayed.

For leadership

Do we know how many of last year's first-time givers have given again, measured fairly?

One practical step

Ask for one completed-cohort view of first-time givers before drawing any conclusion about retention.

See what your own giving system is revealing.

The Managed Giving System Review is the paid first engagement. It shows leadership what the system is revealing and identifies the next responsible move.

Request a Managed Giving System Review